This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the BNP Paribas Open continues Monday from the hard courts of Indian Wells, California. Everyone in action here has won at least one match to get to this point. Two of the brightest young stars on the ATP Tour will face accomplished veterans, while rankings may not mean much in a pair of rematches between opponents that recently clashed at the Australian Open. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting has officially gone live.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Francisco Cerundolo (+380) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
Auger-Aliassime has been one of the bigger disappointments of the 2023 season so far, as he’s already lost to three opponents ranked outside the top 60. FAA got the better of Cerundolo in four sets at the Australian Open, but the slower conditions at Indian Wells should benefit Cerundolo in this rematch, as he’s most comfortable on the even slower clay. Underdogs will have their work cut out for them Monday, but the 32nd-ranked Cerundolo looks like the likeliest of the bunch to subvert expectations.
Bianca Andreescu (+650) vs. Iga Swiatek
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Holger Rune (-475) vs. Stan Wawrinka
If it wasn’t for Carlos Alcaraz, Rune would be the talk of the tennis world as the sport’s future standard bearer. The 19-year-old Dane won the Masters 1000 in Paris on indoor hard courts late in 2022, and he was steamrolling the competition at the Australian Open until Andrey Rublev beat him 11-9 in the fifth-set tiebreak in the fourth round. While Rune’s rapidly ascending, Wawrinka’s best days are long behind him. The three-time Grand Slam champion is 16-19 since the start of last year, and Wawrinka’s ranking has dipped to No. 100 on the dot. Despite Wawrinka’s name recognition, this should be smooth sailing for Rune at this point in their respective careers.
Marketa Vondrousova (-185) vs. Ons Jabeur
Vondrousova handled Jabeur at the Australian Open with a 6-1, 5-7, 6-1 win, and the slow hard courts here play right into the 23-year-old Czech’s hands. The former French Open runner-up has dropped just six games through two matches, while Jabeur needed three sets to get by lucky loser Magdalena Frech in the second round following a first-round bye. Despite being ranked No. 4, Jabeur’s lacking confidence due to a lack of match play, as minor knee surgery has kept her out since the Australian Open. Facing the player that handled her down under won’t help Jabeur regain that confidence.
Carlos Alcaraz (-800) vs. Tallon Griekspoor
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Andy Murray (+135) vs. Jack Draper
Draper grew up looking up to Murray, so the 21-year-old Brit will undoubtedly be battling some extra nerves against his 35-year-old countryman. While Draper has more firepower, Murray’s veteran experience should give him the edge in this match. Murray has handled lefties well in his career. If you take Rafael Nadal out of the equation, Murray’s 83-14 against all other southpaws, which spells trouble for Draper.
Tommy Paul (+115) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Paul’s off to an exceptional start in 2023, as he’s unlocked a new gear since switching from a Wilson racquet to a Yonex coming into this year. In addition to reaching the semifinals of the Australian Open, the American also made the final in Acapulco the week prior to Indian Wells. Hurkacz has an indoor hard court title in Marseille under his belt in 2023, but the slower hard courts and less-than-pristine wind conditions here should favor Paul over the big-serving Pole.
Emma Raducanu (-110) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia