EUR/USD holds below 1.0900, focus on German Trade Balance, ECB’s Lagarde speech

EUR/USD holds below 1.0900, focus on German Trade Balance, ECB’s Lagarde speech


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  • EUR/USD holds positive ground near 1.0890 on the weaker USD.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, flat at 46.7 in November.
  • ECB policymaker said the central bank isn’t ready to consider lowering borrowing costs now but would consider it later in 2024.
  • Traders will focus on the German Trade Balance, ECB’s Lagarde speech.

The EUR/USD pair snaps its three-day losing streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The rebound of the pair is baked by the weaker US Dollar (USD) and lower US Treasury bond yields amid speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached its peak of the rate hike cycle and will ease policy soon. EUR/USD currently trades near 1.0890, gaining 0.10% on the day.

The dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday dragged the Greenback lower. Powell’s statements provided some support for the belief that the Fed is done with the interest rate hiking cycle and will move to an easing posture in 2024. He added that it would be premature to conclude with confidence that the Fed has achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance or to speculate on when policy may be eased.”

The US manufacturing sector remained subdued in November. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed on Friday that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, and remains steady at 46.7 in November. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Employment Index dropped to 45.8 from 46.8 in the previous reading. Prices Paid rose from 45.1 to 49.9 and the New Orders Index climbed to 48.3 in November versus 45.5 prior.

Elsewhere, an attack on an American warship and commercial vessels in the Red Sea on Sunday fueled the fear of escalating conflicts between Israel and Hamas. This, in turn, might boost the safe-haven flow and benefit the USD against its rivals.

Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said last week that the ECB is not ready to consider lowering borrowing costs now but would consider it later in 2024. That being said, the slowdown in inflation brings the ECB’s 2% inflation target back into clear focus for the first time since the summer of 2021, potentially signaling an adjustment in monetary policy.

Later on Monday, market participants will keep an eye on the German Trade Balance for October and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech. These events could give a clear direction to the EUR/USD pair.

 

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