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NBA Best Bets
Record: 84-63-2 | Units: +16.65 | ROI: 10.4%
Milwaukee is not on the same level as Denver. The Bucks are 10-11 SU/5-16 ATS since the beginning of January. They are failing to cover by 5.5 points per game, and they are outscoring opponents by only 0.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Milwaukee has shown us no reason to believe they are on the same level as contenders like Denver, and the market is finally starting to come around.
If the line closes here it would mark the second time the last two seasons the Bucks have closed as an underdog at home. The first time was last April when Milwaukee had nothing to play for and benched their starters against Memphis. This marks a significant shift in the market’s rating for the Bucks, and it still might not be enough.
Still, we’re behind the market move today. So, instead of betting into the side let’s bet into the team total for Denver. Milwaukee has allowed 118.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage over the last 21 games. For the season they still rank 17th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (117.4). They lack a true defender for Jamal Murray as well, and his pick-and-rolls with Nikola Jokic should destroy the Bucks’ penchant for drop coverage.
Play: Nuggets TT OV 115.5 (-115) – Playable to (-125)
The gap between these teams is larger than what this number would indicate, so the Clippers are going to be the play tonight. Los Angeles can do a lot to bother the best defense in the NBA. The Clippers do not live at the rim, so they can bring Rudy Gobert out of the paint with Daniel Theis. Ivica Zubac gives them a rebounding presence that can battle with Gobert on the glass. Los Angeles also has better depth than Minnesota does, giving them a distinct advantage when the starters rest.
This wager is simple on my end. My number here came out to just over 5.5 in favor of Los Angeles, so that leads to play on the home team tonight. The Clippers are 27-6 SU/21-12 ATS in their last 33 games. They are first in net rating (+10.3) and sixth in spread differential (+2.2) over that span. Los Angeles is a team that deserves to be rated on the same level that Boston does, but we are still seeing some resistance from the market to do so. You will find no such resistance here!
Play: Clippers (-4) – Playable up to (-5.5)
NBA Best Bets
Nuggets TT OV 115.5 (-115)