At BettingPros, we compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from the sportsbooks to give you the best prop bet picks.
Best 2023 NBA Player Prop Bets
What are Player Props?
Player props refer to wagers that bettors can make based on player performance in a specific game. The majority of player props are built around the most common statistical benchmarks for a specific sport such as yards and touchdowns in football. Most player props are straight over/under plays that open at or near -110 and are adjusted based on where the money lands. Examples of basketball player prop bets include over/under bets on points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, blocks, or steals.
NBA Player Prop Bet Strategy & Advice
Selecting NBA player prop bets involves a mix of statistical analysis, understanding player trends, and considering game contexts. Here are some strategies and advice to help you make more informed choices:
- Understand Player Trends and Matchups: Analyze how players perform against specific teams or players. Some players might have historically strong or weak performances against certain matchups. For instance, a player might consistently score above their average against a team with weaker defense.
- Consider Recent Performance: Look at a player’s recent games to gauge their current form. Injuries, slumps, or hot streaks can significantly impact a player’s performance.
- Analyze the Game Context: Factors such as the importance of the game, playoff implications, and even the potential for a blowout can affect how a player is utilized and their statistical output. In high-stakes games, star players might play more minutes and have more impact.
- Injury Reports and Player Rotations: Always check for injury updates. An injured starter can mean increased opportunities for a backup. Similarly, understand how teams rotate their players. Some coaches have a tight rotation, which could mean more consistent minutes and stats for certain players.
- Utilize Advanced Stats: Beyond basic points, rebounds, and assists, delve into advanced metrics like usage rate, player efficiency rating (PER), and true shooting percentage. These can give insights into a player’s overall impact and efficiency.